Quarterly Economic Outlook
The US economy remains on a sustained growth path, with real GDP projected to expand at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter. My forecast assumes an acceleration in growth to 2.5% over the next four quarters. The welcome decline in core consumer inflation since 2022 is nearing an end and will reach a cyclical bottom around 2.5% prior to yearend. My forecast assumes accelerating inflation in both 2025 and 2026.
The September FOMC meeting marked an important inflection point in the current economic cycle. The end result will be even faster growth in spending and an extended business expansion well into 2026. The global economy will remain on a sluggish growth path over the next year, but could strengthen later in the year, depending upon central bank policies, geopolitical developments, and private sector confidence... READ MORE
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